BOGA discusses Fossil Fuel Roadmaps at the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial

Since the launch of the Roadmap process at COP30, developments have reinforced the need to deliver a just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels – from the impacts of war in the Middle East, to soaring multi-stakeholder support and momentum at the Santa Marta conference. BOGA’s presentation at CCM expanded upon why the Roadmap process is important in this context, what it should look like, and where it can feed back into existing multilateral processes, ahead of the second GST.  

Why the Fossil Fuel Roadmap process is important

Back in Belém, BOGA played a central role in rallying an unprecedented number of Parties in support of the Mutirão Call for a Fossil Fuel Roadmap, which was framed as part of the urgent response to accelerate implementation and align Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with the 1.5°c limit. 

The UNFCCC process has directly addressed fossil fuels since COP28, with the first global agreement to transition away from fossil fuels contained within the first Global Stocktake. What the process doesn’t have – yet – is a common understanding of pathways, plans and policies required for implementation, and of how to report back on them. That’s where the Roadmap adds great value. 

When it comes to reflecting the transition away from fossil fuels within NDCs, there remains a significant gap between ambition and action. BOGA analysis shows that of the 138 NDCs submitted to date, 100 NDCs reference the transition away from fossil fuels and 48 NDCs reference Paragraph 28(d) of the GST directly – yet only 12 of those NDCs contain concrete implementing measures.  

While this represents a significant gap between ambition and action, there is renewed urgency behind the transition away from fossil fuels. The geopolitical and economic context in which those NDCs were prepared is very different to today, with conflict disrupting around 15 per cent of oil supply and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, and with the crisis compounding ahead of COP31. The Roadmap process can and should respond to this. 

What the Fossil Fuel Roadmap should look like

What’s clear is that the Roadmap should be a process, rather than a product. In the Heads of Delegation (HODs) Dialogue that BOGA has convened since COP27, four ‘principles’ for the Roadmap repeatedly emerged in the run-up to COP30 and since. These principles are also prominent in many of the 200-plus Submissions to the COP30 President’s Consultation on the Roadmap. 

The first is that the Roadmap should be country-led and build on best practice. Despite the gap between ambition and action in the NDCs, there is a wealth of progress and best practice at national and subnational levels – often embedded in other areas of planning and policy, and within high-ambition alliances and initiatives such as BOGA, the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), and the Global Methane Pledge.

The second is that the Roadmap should be robust and grounded in the best data and analysis. While there are challenges in translating top-down global scenarios – including those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Energy Agency (IEA) – into bottom-up decision-making, there are a growing number of processes addressing this. These range from the producer–consumer dialogues of major consumer blocs like the European Union, to spaces like BOGA’s Major Producers Dialogue, where some of the largest producers in the world collaborate on new analytical approaches, with support from the IEA and International Monetary Fund (IMF), among others. 

The third is that the Roadmap should be action-oriented, signposting established platforms and partnerships. From those that can support early analysis and planning, like the BOGA Fund programmes, the NDC Partnership and the IEA Clean Energy Transitions Partnership, through to Multilateral Development Bank (MDB) programmes and country platform approaches, with the potential to scale. What is evident is that where fast, flexible support is offered, country demand is emerging – particularly from countries that are most exposed to the fossil fuel crisis, from oil and gas exporters to small island states.

The fourth is that the Roadmap should actively build a bridge between the Action Agenda and the formal process. Within the restructured Action Agenda, there is a dedicated Activation Group on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, within the Energy, Industry and Transport Axis, where initiatives have submitted Plans for Accelerated Solutions. Transformative action will be driven by looking across Axes and Activation Groups. The Roadmap process can identify strategic opportunities with sectoral initiatives on electrification and mobility, and capacity-building and finance initiatives, among others. 

The Roadmap process will deliver something greater than the sum of its parts if it brings these pathways, plans, policies, platforms and partnerships together in a way that offers real guidance on implementation, and on reporting that progress back into the process. The good news is that we are not just starting the conversation. That happened long before COP28. The priority now is to bring these conversations into the open, and normalise planning for a just, orderly and equitable transition. 

Where the Fossil Fuel Roadmap can feed back into existing processes

There is obviously an interplay between the COP30 Presidency Roadmap and the wider momentum around roadmaps, with Brazil’s national roadmap announced at COP30, with France presenting the first national roadmap at Santa Marta, and with more on the way under the BOGA–NDC Partnership collaboration. For those with high levels of dependency, there is a strong case for developing national roadmaps. For those with lower levels of dependency, or more advanced transitions, it may be more a case of communicating existing plans and policies. Either way, if the 100 Parties that currently reference the transition in their NDCs were to set out their next steps, it could be transformative. 

There are several ways in which progress on the COP30 Presidency and national roadmaps can be reflected within the relevant policy process. Within the Paris Agreement, that could mean sharing best practice in relevant UNFCCC dialogues and processes, and in time, reflecting real progress at country level through the NDCs and the next GST. The June Climate Meetings (SB64) in Bonn will be the next key moment for Parties to engage with the Roadmap process, and to begin defining what success should look like by COP31. 

At the same time, it is critical that the hard work of mainstreaming the transition throughout energy and finance policy and processes is accelerated. By empowering those ministries within the Paris Agreement policy cycle, we can ensure that by the time we reach the second Global Stocktake, Parties have a clear picture of where they are headed and the cross-government coordination and capacity required to implement it. 

We are in a protracted fossil fuels crisis, the impacts of which will continue to play out over the coming months, and which may be even more profound by the time we reach COP31. The human and economic costs of fossil fuel dependency are increasingly clear. So too are the benefits of a just, orderly and equitable transition. The Roadmap process must help chart that path, from emergency response measures to the current crisis, to structural transitions away from fossil fuel dependency.